In Turkey, Elections Always Matter: A Historic March 31st

Defying everyone's expectations, Turkey's main opposition CHP handily defeated the ruling AKP in yesterday's local elections.

Supporters of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) celebrate outside of the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality headquarters on the evening of March 31.

Turkey never fails to surprise, I tweeted on the evening of March 31st, when it had become clear that the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) had delivered a shocking defeat to the ruling Justice and Development Party led by President Recep Erdoğan in nationwide local elections.

No one was expecting such a result, given that less than a year ago, Erdoğan survived a united opposition front that tried to unseat him from power. Erdoğan won the presidential election in the second round, securing his grip on power for another five years. This occurred in spite of Turkey’s ongoing economic crisis and the devastating February 6th earthquakes, where the government’s response was widely criticized.

The CHP clinched 37.66% of the vote while the AKP only received 35.26%, an unprecedented loss for the ruling party and a historic win for the CHP. The last time the opposition party performed this well was in the 1977 elections under the leadership of Bülent Ecevit, an important figure in Turkish political history. The CHP retained leadership of the country’s three biggest cities, Istanbul, Ankara and İzmir, and captured the fourth-largest city of Bursa from the AKP. The Istanbul race was particularly crucial as it was interpreted as not just a mayoral election but a contest between the successful incumbent Ekrem İmamoğlu (who won twice in 2019) and Erdoğan, Istanbul’s former mayor who has controlled the city in some capacity since 1994 until İmamoğlu wrested it back four years ago. İmamoğlu’s opponent Murat Kurum, the prior Minister of Environment and Urban Planning, performed poorly in the campaign but the AKP hoped that voters would side with Erdoğan this time around. They did not.

What was truly shocking is how the CHP managed to pull off defeats in conservative provinces like Adıyaman, Afyonkarahisar, Kastamonu and Kilis, AKP (or far-right coalition partner MHP) strongholds where it seemed unconceivable that the center-left CHP could prevail. The party also pulled off stunning upsets on the district level, seizing a number of AKP-governed provinces in Istanbul, such as Üsküdar, where Erdoğan resides. That race was won by Sinem Dedetaş, a young woman who formerly was in charge of the city-run ferry company. She beat the district incumbent, a victory for both the opposition and Turkish women everywhere.

CHP supporters celebrate outside the party’s Istanbul headquarters on March 31.

But how? After last year’s victory in the general elections, why did the AKP, a party that is synonymous with and under complete control of Erdoğan, perform so poorly this time around, and why did the CHP, which normally tops out at 25% of the vote, do so well?